Issue 01
California Real Estate
July 9, 2026
Market Intelligence
Know before it moves. · Tye Moody · Twin Oaks Real Estate · DRE #02439789
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County Spotlight
California Forever hired former Senate Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg and former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg as paid special counsel on June 25 — and the same day added two former Newsom aides to its team. Their specific Sacramento asks are on record: use an existing 18-year-old EIR for the shipyard, cap litigation at 270 days, authorize Suisun City’s annexation. Governor Newsom signed the 2026-27 budget on June 29 with no California Forever provision included. Steinberg and Hertzberg have conditioned any legislation on California Forever first securing a signed lease with a manufacturer or shipbuilder — that lease has not been announced. The urgency driver: Saronic Technologies, a drone-ship company with $400M+ in Navy contracts backed by Marc Andreessen, is reportedly being offered $3.2 billion in Texas incentives to build its shipyard in Brownsville instead of Solano County. Update July 8: Suisun City received an EIR status briefing at its July 8 council meeting. The draft EIR is reported to be nearing completion; once released, it enters a 60-day public comment period before public hearings and the LAFCO process can advance. Update July 16: Saronic has formally named the California site 'Port Alpha' and brought Suisun City's mayor and city manager to visit its Louisiana facilities — both signed non-disclosure agreements about the trip before it took place. Update July 19: Saronic chose the Port of Brownsville, Texas on July 16, ending its California site evaluation. Cameron County approved $211 million in tax abatements; the deal is projected to create more than 10,000 direct jobs. California Forever and the labor coalition issued a joint statement saying Solano County was 'easily the best site' from a 17-state search and one of two finalists — but that state and local leaders 'did not pass the legislation in time.' California Forever says it continues to pursue other shipbuilding and manufacturing tenants; the coalition is calling for a summer legislative trailer bill.
Real Story
Policy Watch
The Number
County Spotlight
The flagship waterfront project is paused while Vallejo and the wastewater district mediate who owns the island’s failing sewers. A 2025 infrastructure report found broken pipes, bad joints, and a system at capacity. One near-term bright spot: Lennar has confirmed it’s moving forward on 96 lots at Coral Sea Village, with construction expected late summer. The 14,000-unit specific plan is in EIR review — don’t expect a draft before late 2026. For anyone transacting on the island now: the CFD burden remains and the Connolly project has no resolution date.
Mare Island Co. at SAR · June 2026
County Spotlight
Mare Island Dry Dock declared bankruptcy and closed December 30, 2025, after losing a Coast Guard contract for the icebreaker USCGC Healy to Vigor Marine in Portland. The Mare Island Company stepped in — not to run a shipyard, but to control the property. Paired with a Maritime Prosperity Zone bid with California Forever, they’re pitching a 50–80 acre federal shipbuilding campus. Talks are active; no tenant is signed. Update, June 2026: The City of Vallejo authorized a $210,000 contract with defense lobbying firm the Roosevelt Group to attract maritime investment — the city itself is now formally betting on this thesis.
Mare Island Co. at SAR · June 2026
County Spotlight
SF County is 47 square miles. The AI boom — led by OpenAI and Anthropic — is pulling high-income workers and wealth back into the city. C.A.R.'s May 2026 report puts SF County's median at approximately $2.2M, up 22.2% year-over-year — the Bay Area region also hit a record $1.45M (up 3.6%). Single-family inventory has stayed brutally tight, and office-to-residential conversions are still crawling.
CAR County Data
County Spotlight
As of the latest county data (January 2026), the median sits near $520K — essentially flat — while sales fall and homes sit longer. The demand thesis rests on Bay Area access via ACE, but the Valley Rail extension to Manteca, Modesto, Ceres and Sacramento still isn’t running as of mid-2026. Until those trains arrive, buyers are pricing against local wages.
ACE Rail
Local Intel
Solano County Assessor-Recorder Glenn Zook attended a recent Solano Association of Realtors meeting and got an earful. Agents raised a recurring complaint: assessed values coming in significantly above what the market will support, particularly in Vallejo. One agent described a multi-unit property on Florida Street where the assessed value was so disconnected from market reality that the owner is selling primarily to escape the tax burden. Zook acknowledged his team has documented difficulty accessing MLS data, which is the primary tool for establishing market value. He said comps should drive assessments and invited agents with specific cases to contact him directly.
The public record backs up the volume of the complaint: as of the close of the 2025–26 roll, more than 700 formal assessment appeals are pending in Solano County, representing over $3 billion in property value potentially subject to reduction. The county’s total assessment roll hit $77.96 billion this year — its 14th consecutive year of growth — and the Valero plant closure is expected to put further downward pressure on values going forward.
If you think your property is over-assessed: Start with the informal track — a one-page form to the assessor’s office with your estimated value and supporting comps. Most cases resolve here. Formal appeals and Prop 8 reassessment requests must be filed between July 1 and November 30, with a $35 non-refundable fee per parcel. You must continue paying taxes during any appeal. Contact: (707) 784-6210 · assessor@solanocounty.gov
Solano County Assessor-Recorder · solanocounty.gov
The public record backs up the volume of the complaint: as of the close of the 2025–26 roll, more than 700 formal assessment appeals are pending in Solano County, representing over $3 billion in property value potentially subject to reduction. The county’s total assessment roll hit $77.96 billion this year — its 14th consecutive year of growth — and the Valero plant closure is expected to put further downward pressure on values going forward.
If you think your property is over-assessed: Start with the informal track — a one-page form to the assessor’s office with your estimated value and supporting comps. Most cases resolve here. Formal appeals and Prop 8 reassessment requests must be filed between July 1 and November 30, with a $35 non-refundable fee per parcel. You must continue paying taxes during any appeal. Contact: (707) 784-6210 · assessor@solanocounty.gov
Local Intel
There’s a mortgage product that doesn’t get enough airtime in conversations with clients who are retired, semi-retired, or living off investments: asset depletion loans, sometimes called asset utilization loans. The concept: instead of qualifying on W-2 income, lenders calculate a theoretical monthly income by dividing the borrower’s liquid assets by a set number of months. A standard formula — total eligible assets minus down payment and closing costs, divided by the depletion period — gives you a monthly qualifying income figure. Example: $900K in eligible assets, $200K down, $700K remaining ÷ 60 months = $11,667/month qualifying income. That runs through a standard debt-to-income analysis like any other loan.
Eligible assets typically include retirement accounts, investment accounts, brokerage accounts, and trust accounts. The tradeoff: rates generally run 6%–7.5% versus conventional, and most programs require a minimum 700 FICO. These are non-QM products — terms vary by lender.
The client profile: retirees with substantial savings, business owners post-exit, or anyone whose wealth shows up on a balance sheet rather than a pay stub. If a buyer tells you they don’t have the income to qualify, ask about their assets before ending the conversation.
Asset Depletion Mortgage Requirements (2026) · Defy Mortgage
Eligible assets typically include retirement accounts, investment accounts, brokerage accounts, and trust accounts. The tradeoff: rates generally run 6%–7.5% versus conventional, and most programs require a minimum 700 FICO. These are non-QM products — terms vary by lender.
The client profile: retirees with substantial savings, business owners post-exit, or anyone whose wealth shows up on a balance sheet rather than a pay stub. If a buyer tells you they don’t have the income to qualify, ask about their assets before ending the conversation.
County Spotlight
The Valero Benicia refinery ceased production in April 2026 after a phased shutdown that began in February. It is converting to a gasoline import terminal — a deal the state negotiated with Valero to maintain Northern California fuel supply. The fiscal hit to Benicia is immediate: the closure removes roughly $10.8 million per year in tax revenue, about 13% of the city's general fund. The 400-plus person workforce shrinks to perhaps 100 for import operations, which means several hundred direct jobs lost and more indirect impacts. For Benicia real estate, that is downward pressure on local demand and city services in the near term. The 900-acre waterfront site is a genuine long-term redevelopment wildcard — but the import terminal has no fixed end date, which puts meaningful development on hold for years, not months. Benicia's median home price was approximately $712,000 in March 2026, down about 16% year-over-year, already reflecting some of the economic uncertainty.
Update, June 2026: Oakland-based Signature Development Group, contracted by Valero, submitted preliminary plans to the City of Benicia on May 15, 2026 for a mixed-use neighborhood on the 900-acre site — housing (single-family homes, senior living, and townhomes), retail shops, hiking trails, and a community park. A formal application is expected this fall; years of EIR review, zoning changes, cleanup, and city approvals follow before any shovels go in the ground.
Update, July 2026: Benicia is pursuing a second attempt to address its fiscal gap through two November 2026 ballot measures: a limited charter city measure (required first) and a tiered real property transfer tax — 0.4% on sales up to $2M, 0.6% on $2M–$10M, and 0.8% on sales above $10M — estimated to raise approximately $850,000 annually. Benicia voters rejected similar measures in November 2024.
Press Democrat · NBC Bay Area · January 2026
Update, June 2026: Oakland-based Signature Development Group, contracted by Valero, submitted preliminary plans to the City of Benicia on May 15, 2026 for a mixed-use neighborhood on the 900-acre site — housing (single-family homes, senior living, and townhomes), retail shops, hiking trails, and a community park. A formal application is expected this fall; years of EIR review, zoning changes, cleanup, and city approvals follow before any shovels go in the ground.
Update, July 2026: Benicia is pursuing a second attempt to address its fiscal gap through two November 2026 ballot measures: a limited charter city measure (required first) and a tiered real property transfer tax — 0.4% on sales up to $2M, 0.6% on $2M–$10M, and 0.8% on sales above $10M — estimated to raise approximately $850,000 annually. Benicia voters rejected similar measures in November 2024.
Local Intel
The Anheuser-Busch Budweiser brewery in Fairfield — open for nearly 50 years at 3103 Busch Drive — permanently closed February 22, 2026. The plant was Fairfield's largest industrial water user and a direct employer of about 238 workers, with roughly 300 more in the supply chain. The city loses an estimated $10.7 million per year in combined tax and utility revenue and faces potential water rate increases. Cushman & Wakefield is marketing the 170-acre, 1-million-square-foot campus (10 parcels, solar/gas power, two wind turbines) to both industrial users and redevelopment buyers. As of July 2026, no buyer has been announced. Any conversion or redevelopment faces years of environmental review, zoning work, and physical retrofit or demolition of specialized brewing infrastructure.
The Real Deal SF · February 2026
Policy Watch
California banned owner-occupancy requirements for ADUs with AB 976, effective January 1, 2024 (now Gov. Code §66315). It's not pending — it's two-year-old law, and local ordinances that still impose it are unenforceable.
SB 679 on leginfo
Policy Watch
The "30 days and it's auto-approved" shorthand mixes up two laws. AB 2234's missed deadlines trigger Housing Accountability Act liability, not approval. The real "deemed approved" lever is AB 253, effective October 2025 — which lets you bring in a private plan checker.
AB 2234 on leginfo
Policy Watch
AB 179, signed July 13, 2026, limits what cities and counties can charge in development impact fees on new residential projects, including affordable housing. Cities must now justify any fees they impose. The estimated savings per bill backers: $60,000 to $70,000 per unit in development cost. For Solano County cities trying to attract new housing supply after losing major industrial employers, this is a direct change in the math.
AB 179 — Gov.ca.gov July 13, 2026
What Passed
AB 1893 (effective Jan 1, 2025) lets developers bypass local zoning in cities without a state-compliant housing element, in exchange for modest affordability. With 15 cities just put on notice and the first court test already lost by a city, resistance is getting expensive.
CalMatters Housing Coverage
What Passed
In November, residents vote on the “Responsible Housing Initiative” — slashing the city’s capacity from ~8,200 homes to ~2,900, and routing future decisions back to the ballot. A judge upheld the current plan in June 2025. If the measure passes, the city could lose state certification and face the builder’s remedy citywide.
Voice of OC
What Passed
SB 79 (Wiener) took effect July 1, 2026, making qualifying high-density housing a by-right use near rail and Bus Rapid Transit stops in eight California counties. Bay Area BART stations in Fremont, Hayward, and Richmond already have active developer RFPs. Los Angeles passed ordinances to delay the law to ~2030; San Francisco exempted ~19,850 low-income-designated parcels until 2032. Cities can redirect density through alternative plans — but cannot lower the total housing ceiling. Update July 16: Governor Newsom signed SB 722 (Wahab), which excludes existing mobile home parks and RV parks from SB 79's by-right TOD development rules — protecting those residents from displacement.
SB 79 on leginfo
What Passed
The Legislature voted June 25, 2026 to place SB 417 — the Veterans and Affordable Housing Bond Act of 2026 — on the November ballot. $10 billion in general obligation bonds for affordable housing construction and preservation. $1.25 billion in revenue bonds for CalVet's below-market home-loan program for veterans. A yes vote authorizes the borrowing; it's not an immediate check, but it refills programs that fund projects across Solano County and the Bay Area.
SB 417 on leginfo
What Passed
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) cleared the Senate 85-5 and the House 358-32 in late June. Trump canceled his own signing ceremony, cited the SAVE Act as a condition, then declined to veto. It became law at 12:01 a.m. on July 11, 2026 — automatically, without his signature. Key provisions: institutional investors owning more than 350 single-family homes cannot buy more starting January 7, 2027 (exceptions for build-to-rent; no divestiture of existing portfolios required); states get federal model zoning frameworks for by-right duplexes and triplexes; 100,000 more public housing units unlocked through a RAD expansion. Garamendi's HOME Act is included.
H.R. 6644 on Congress.gov
Correction
Case-Shiller’s national index rose just 0.7% year-over-year in March 2026 — cooling, not collapsing. California’s median peaked at a record $930,260 in May 2026, then moderated to $904,640 in June (+0.4% YoY) as the luxury-sale mix shifted — a deceleration, not a collapse. Inventory has recovered to within ~14% of pre-pandemic norms. Foreclosures are ticking up but remain low by historical standards. That’s not a crash setup. That’s a slow, expensive grind.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Real Story
C.A.R. reported a new statewide record of $930,260 in May 2026; June 2026 moderated to $904,640 (+0.4% YoY) as the luxury-sale mix shifted. Also true: people are leaving California. But net outmigration is concentrated among lower-income residents — a net loss of ~532,000 lower-income adults over a decade versus ~165,000 higher-income. The people leaving were largely not in the buyer pool.
CAR April 2026 Data
Correction
The “tiered pricing” charts aren’t new legislation — they’re descriptive analysis (the Case-Shiller method) that sorts homes into low/mid/high tiers because a single median lies to you. C.A.R.’s May 2026 data (released June 17) sets a new statewide record: $930,260 — and the county spread remains extreme, from sub-$300K to above $2M.
firsttuesday Journal
Correction
Bay Area scammers are running a two-pronged TikTok rental fraud: posting fake listings for occupied homes (San Leandro), and stealing real agents' listing videos to impersonate them and collect deposits (San Francisco). A KRON4 reporter lost approximately $2,000. San Leandro PD is investigating.
ABC7 San Francisco
Correction
A Marin homeowner listed an $8M property for Anthropic stock on LinkedIn. A $2.995M SF Victorian followed. National coverage called it a "trend." What the headlines skipped: not one of these deals has closed. The legal mechanics are harder than the hook.
Yahoo Finance
Correction
A post went viral claiming California's new 2026 law means agents get fined $250 per unlabeled virtually staged photo. It doesn't. AB 723 requires a disclosure label and the original unaltered image — willful violation is a misdemeanor. The $250 figure is a pre-existing MLS rule for improperly deleting listing photos. Two different rules. One very shareable mix-up.
Open Homes Photography — AB 723 guide
Correction
The “2026 is the new 2016” trend is everywhere — throwback posts, housing TikToks, viral nostalgia. In 2016, the NAR's national median existing-home price was $232,200 and Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed averaged 3.65%. In June 2026, NAR's median is $440,600 and Freddie Mac's rate is 6.55%. The difference is real. Wishing for it doesn't change your closing date.
EffectiveAgents — 2016 vs 2026
Sources
California Legislative Information (leginfo)Civil Code §827; Gov. Code §66315; AB 976, AB 2234, SB 838 (Ch. 789), AB 1893
California Association of Realtors — May 2026 data (released June 17)$930,260 statewide record, +3.1% YoY; county & regional figures
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller (formerly CoreLogic)national home price index, March 2026
ATTOM Data SolutionsQ1 2026 foreclosure market report
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)California domestic migration by income
Holland & Knight — 2026 California housing lawsAB 253 & SB 838 analysis
Terner Center, UC BerkeleyAB 1893 / builder's remedy
Office of the Governor & HCDhousing-law enforcement; Newport Beach amicus support
LAist & The Real DealLA County rent gouging; Newport Beach vote
San Joaquin Regional Rail Commission — Valley RailACE / Valley Rail extension status
firsttuesday JournalCalifornia tiered-pricing analysis
RedfinSan Francisco & San Joaquin market data
Solano County Assessor-Recorder — FY2025/26 Roll$77.96B roll; 700+ appeals; Prop 8 status
Solano County Assessment Appealsformal appeal process, fees, filing window
Defy Mortgage — Asset Depletion Requirements 2026formula, eligible assets, rate range
NAR — Existing-Home Sales, June 2026National median $440,600 June 2026 (+1.8% YoY); 2016 annual median $232,200
Freddie Mac PMMS — 30-year fixed rate2016 annual average 3.65%; July 16, 2026: 6.55%
Governor of California — bills signed July 16, 2026SB 722 (Wahab) signed; excludes mobile home parks and RV parks from SB 79 TOD by-right rules
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