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Issue 01 California Real Estate October 25, 2026
Market Intelligence
Know before it moves. · Tye Moody · Twin Oaks Real Estate · DRE #02439789
Policy WatchThe NumberWhat PassedCounty SpotlightReal StoryInfluencer CorrectionLocal IntelADU Policy
County Spotlight
InvestorsBuyersHomeowners
Eastern Solano County farmland
California Forever hired former Senate Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg and former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg as paid special counsel on June 25 — and the same day added two former Newsom aides to its team. Their specific Sacramento asks are on record: use an existing 18-year-old EIR for the shipyard, cap litigation at 270 days, authorize Suisun City’s annexation. Governor Newsom signed the 2026-27 budget on June 29 with no California Forever provision included. Steinberg and Hertzberg have conditioned any legislation on California Forever first securing a signed lease with a manufacturer or shipbuilder — that lease has not been announced. The urgency driver: Saronic Technologies, a drone-ship company with $400M+ in Navy contracts backed by Marc Andreessen, is reportedly being offered $3.2 billion in Texas incentives to build its shipyard in Brownsville instead of Solano County. Update July 8: Suisun City received an EIR status briefing at its July 8 council meeting. The draft EIR is reported to be nearing completion; once released, it enters a 60-day public comment period before public hearings and the LAFCO process can advance. Update July 16: Saronic has formally named the California site 'Port Alpha' and brought Suisun City's mayor and city manager to visit its Louisiana facilities — both signed non-disclosure agreements about the trip before it took place. Update July 19: Saronic chose the Port of Brownsville, Texas on July 16, ending its California site evaluation. Cameron County approved $211 million in tax abatements; the deal is projected to create more than 10,000 direct jobs. California Forever and the labor coalition issued a joint statement saying Solano County was 'easily the best site' from a 17-state search and one of two finalists — but that state and local leaders 'did not pass the legislation in time.' California Forever says it continues to pursue other shipbuilding and manufacturing tenants; the coalition is calling for a summer legislative trailer bill. Update July 27: California's economic development office — GO-Biz — sent a July 23 memo to Solano County officials and state leaders formally calling the Solano Shipyard and the newly named 'Solano Foundry Manufacturing Park' 'projects of statewide significance.' GO-Biz Director Dee Dee Myers said winning 'will require collaboration' among all stakeholders. Governor Newsom has not directly endorsed the project. Update August 4: California Forever published a blog post — 'Solano Shipyard and Solano Foundry will not work without homes' — explicitly linking the industrial projects to the residential Suisun Expansion, warning that 'no company will site a large shipbuilding or manufacturing facility in a region without long-term housing for its workforce.' The company stated that some officials have supported faster permitting for the shipyard without the residential component — and that it rejects that separation. Update August 9: The LAFCO General Plan summit has been postponed with no new date; a 55-organization coalition sent a letter to Sacramento opposing trailer bill provisions that would bypass local review; CalMatters listed the Solano Foundry push among five key items to watch before the legislature's August 31 adjournment deadline. Update August 11: Governor's Office of Business and Economic Development Director Dee Dee Myers convened a stakeholder meeting in late July with Solano County supervisors, California Forever representatives, Assemblymember Lori Wilson, and Sen. Christopher Cabaldon — the most direct Newsom administration involvement in the project to date; reported by CalMatters and Capital Radio on August 3, 2026. No trailer bill language has been publicly introduced as of August 11; the legislature's August 31 adjournment deadline is 20 days away. Update August 16: No bill has been publicly introduced as of August 16. The legislature's fiscal committees completed their work on August 14; any remaining path for California Forever legislation runs through floor session only, which began August 17. Update August 19: CalMatters reported that Newsom's office has circulated a draft legislative proposal that would allow California Forever to use the 2008 environmental impact report — which designated approximately 1,305 acres along the Delta shore for water-dependent industrial usage — for its proposed shipyard, alongside a 270-day environmental review process. No bill has been formally introduced as of August 23. Update August 24: Assemblymember Lori Wilson (D-Suisun City) and Sen. Christopher Cabaldon (D-West Sacramento) announced plans to introduce the Solano Maritime and Manufacturing Act — legislation that would designate a 1,350-acre Collinsville waterfront site as a maritime industrial zone to fast-track a major shipyard. Critically, multiple outlets confirm the bill covers only the shipyard site and would not advance the residential component or the Solano Foundry — California Forever has maintained the two cannot be separated. The Real Deal reported August 24 the shipyard bill is 'poised for a lawmaker nod.' No bill number assigned yet. The clock: 6 days. Update August 25: In a surprise 3-2 vote, the Solano County Board of Supervisors voted to formally oppose the Solano Maritime and Manufacturing Act — the very bill Wilson and Cabaldon had announced the day before. Supervisor Mitch Mashburn cast one of the deciding votes against, saying the legislation was being pushed through too quickly with unresolved concerns about environmental oversight and outreach to labor unions and tribal nations. Two supervisors — Cassandra James and Wanda Williams — voted in support and said they want to revisit in 2027. Without county support in the final days before the August 31 adjournment, the bill is effectively dead for this year. Update August 29: California Forever CEO Jan Sramek emailed Solano County staff arguing legislation was still needed before the legislature adjourns, claiming the combined projects would create 530,000 statewide jobs and $4 billion annually in state revenue — California Forever's own projections, not independently verified. No bill was ever formally introduced or assigned a bill number. The California Legislature adjourned on August 31, 2026, ending the 2026 Sacramento window for California Forever legislation. The EIR and LAFCO tracks continue on their own timeline. Update September 1: Suisun City completed the first phase of its downtown property sale to California Forever, transferring 701 Main Street (a historic bank/restaurant building), the Lawler House, the Suisun Harbor Theatre, and two adjacent parking lots for $1.5 million total. Suisun City leases the parking lots back for $1/year for continued public use. The EIR draft remains unreleased as of October 25, 2026.

County Spotlight

What’s happening on the ground
County Spotlight
InvestorsBuyersHomeowners
Waterfront industrial buildings along a strait at dusk
The flagship waterfront project is paused while Vallejo and the wastewater district mediate who owns the island’s failing sewers. A 2025 infrastructure report found broken pipes, bad joints, and a system at capacity. One near-term bright spot: Lennar has confirmed it’s moving forward on 96 lots at Coral Sea Village, with construction expected late summer. The 14,000-unit specific plan is in EIR review — don’t expect a draft before late 2026. For anyone transacting on the island now: the CFD burden remains and the Connolly project has no resolution date.
Mare Island Co. at SAR · June 2026
County Spotlight
Investors
Heavy industrial cranes and infrastructure
Mare Island Dry Dock declared bankruptcy and closed December 30, 2025, after losing a Coast Guard contract for the icebreaker USCGC Healy to Vigor Marine in Portland. The Mare Island Company stepped in — not to run a shipyard, but to control the property. Paired with a Maritime Prosperity Zone bid with California Forever, they’re pitching a 50–80 acre federal shipbuilding campus. Talks are active; no tenant is signed. Update, June 2026: The City of Vallejo authorized a $210,000 contract with defense lobbying firm the Roosevelt Group to attract maritime investment — the city itself is now formally betting on this thesis. Update, August 19, 2026: JLL announced it has been retained by the Nimitz Group to formally market the 350-acre Mare Island Maritime Campus — 2M sq ft of buildings and 4 operational dry docks — to shipbuilders, defense contractors, and institutional investors. The asset is now in a formal capital markets process. Update, August 26, 2026: Governor Newsom announced approximately $8.2 million in California Jobs First grants for Mare Island maritime research and workforce development in partnership with Cal Poly Maritime Academy — the first direct state investment specifically targeting the island's shipbuilding future.
Mare Island Co. at SAR · June 2026
County Spotlight
BuyersInvestors
San Francisco aerial view
SF County is 47 square miles. The AI boom — led by OpenAI and Anthropic — is pulling high-income workers and wealth back into the city. C.A.R.'s May 2026 report puts SF County's median at approximately $2.2M, up 22.2% year-over-year — the Bay Area region also hit a record $1.45M (up 3.6%). Single-family inventory has stayed brutally tight, and office-to-residential conversions are still crawling.
CAR County Data
County Spotlight
InvestorsBuyers
Central Valley California farmland
As of the latest county data (January 2026), the median sits near $520K — essentially flat — while sales fall and homes sit longer. The demand thesis rests on Bay Area access via ACE, but the Valley Rail extension to Manteca, Modesto, Ceres and Sacramento still isn’t running as of mid-2026. Until those trains arrive, buyers are pricing against local wages.
ACE Rail

Local Intel

From the ground in Solano County
Benicia California residential street
County Spotlight
HomeownersSellersBuyers
Measures Y and Z on the November 3 Benicia ballot would impose a tiered property transfer tax — 0.4% on sales up to $2 million, rising to 0.8% above $10 million. The catch that matters for most Benicia sellers: existing homes built before 2027 and sold for under $2 million are fully exempt. At Benicia's current market median near $800K, most typical sales wouldn't be taxed at all.
Vallejo Sun · Benicia November 2026 election coverage
Property tax document and calculator
Local Intel
BuyersSellersHomeownersInvestors
Solano County Assessor-Recorder Glenn Zook attended a recent Solano Association of Realtors meeting and got an earful. Agents raised a recurring complaint: assessed values coming in significantly above what the market will support, particularly in Vallejo. One agent described a multi-unit property on Florida Street where the assessed value was so disconnected from market reality that the owner is selling primarily to escape the tax burden. Zook acknowledged his team has documented difficulty accessing MLS data, which is the primary tool for establishing market value. He said comps should drive assessments and invited agents with specific cases to contact him directly.

The public record backs up the volume of the complaint: as of the close of the 2025–26 roll, more than 700 formal assessment appeals are pending in Solano County, representing over $3 billion in property value potentially subject to reduction. The county’s total assessment roll hit $77.96 billion this year — its 14th consecutive year of growth — and the Valero plant closure is expected to put further downward pressure on values going forward.

If you think your property is over-assessed: Start with the informal track — a one-page form to the assessor’s office with your estimated value and supporting comps. Most cases resolve here. Formal appeals and Prop 8 reassessment requests must be filed between July 1 and November 30, with a $35 non-refundable fee per parcel. You must continue paying taxes during any appeal. Contact: (707) 784-6210 · assessor@solanocounty.gov
Solano County Assessor-Recorder · solanocounty.gov
Investment portfolio and financial planning
Local Intel
Buyers
There’s a mortgage product that doesn’t get enough airtime in conversations with clients who are retired, semi-retired, or living off investments: asset depletion loans, sometimes called asset utilization loans. The concept: instead of qualifying on W-2 income, lenders calculate a theoretical monthly income by dividing the borrower’s liquid assets by a set number of months. A standard formula — total eligible assets minus down payment and closing costs, divided by the depletion period — gives you a monthly qualifying income figure. Example: $900K in eligible assets, $200K down, $700K remaining ÷ 60 months = $11,667/month qualifying income. That runs through a standard debt-to-income analysis like any other loan.

Eligible assets typically include retirement accounts, investment accounts, brokerage accounts, and trust accounts. The tradeoff: rates generally run 6%–7.5% versus conventional, and most programs require a minimum 700 FICO. These are non-QM products — terms vary by lender.

The client profile: retirees with substantial savings, business owners post-exit, or anyone whose wealth shows up on a balance sheet rather than a pay stub. If a buyer tells you they don’t have the income to qualify, ask about their assets before ending the conversation.
Asset Depletion Mortgage Requirements (2026) · Defy Mortgage
Heavy industrial waterfront infrastructure
County Spotlight
HomeownersInvestorsBuyers
The Valero Benicia refinery ceased production in April 2026 after a phased shutdown that began in February. It is converting to a gasoline import terminal — a deal the state negotiated with Valero to maintain Northern California fuel supply. The fiscal hit to Benicia is immediate: the closure removes roughly $10.8 million per year in tax revenue, about 13% of the city's general fund. The 400-plus person workforce shrinks to perhaps 100 for import operations, which means several hundred direct jobs lost and more indirect impacts. For Benicia real estate, that is downward pressure on local demand and city services in the near term. The 900-acre waterfront site is a genuine long-term redevelopment wildcard — but the import terminal has no fixed end date, which puts meaningful development on hold for years, not months. Benicia's median home price was approximately $712,000 in March 2026, down about 16% year-over-year, already reflecting some of the economic uncertainty.

Update, June 2026: Oakland-based Signature Development Group, contracted by Valero, submitted preliminary plans to the City of Benicia on May 15, 2026 for a mixed-use neighborhood on the 900-acre site — housing (single-family homes, senior living, and townhomes), retail shops, hiking trails, and a community park. A formal application is expected this fall; years of EIR review, zoning changes, cleanup, and city approvals follow before any shovels go in the ground.

Update, July 2026: Benicia is pursuing a second attempt to address its fiscal gap through three November 3, 2026 ballot measures: Measure Y (limited charter city designation, required prerequisite), Measure Z (tiered real property transfer tax — 0.4% on sales up to $2M, 0.6% on $2M–$10M, 0.8% above — estimated ~$850,000/year), and Measure X (business license tax modernization). Benicia voters rejected similar measures in November 2024. A legal challenge to the ballot language was filed in August 2026 and dismissed by Solano County Judge Wendy Getty.
Press Democrat · NBC Bay Area · January 2026
For sale sign in front of large commercial building
Local Intel
InvestorsBuyersHomeowners
The Anheuser-Busch Budweiser brewery in Fairfield — open for nearly 50 years at 3103 Busch Drive — permanently closed February 22, 2026. The plant was Fairfield's largest industrial water user and a direct employer of about 238 workers, with roughly 300 more in the supply chain. The city loses an estimated $10.7 million per year in combined tax and utility revenue and faces potential water rate increases. Cushman & Wakefield is marketing the 170-acre, 1-million-square-foot campus (10 parcels, solar/gas power, two wind turbines) to both industrial users and redevelopment buyers. As of July 2026, no buyer has been announced. Any conversion or redevelopment faces years of environmental review, zoning work, and physical retrofit or demolition of specialized brewing infrastructure.
The Real Deal SF · February 2026
Backyard ADU in California
Local Intel
HomeownersInvestors
Vallejo's Planning Commission voted 5-0 on July 6 to recommend ADU rule changes, and the City Council adopted the updated ordinance on September 9, 2026. ADUs under 500 square feet are now exempt from parking requirements, the city must approve or deny applications within 60 days, and permitting is now a single application instead of two steps. The city's new ADU Mini-Guide walks homeowners through the updated process.
Vallejo ADU Ordinance Update — vallejo.gov
Apartment buildings in Vallejo
Local Intel
InvestorsBuyersHomeowners
On September 11, 2026, the Vallejo Planning Commission voted unanimously to recommend the structure for the city's first inclusionary housing ordinance: rental developments with 10+ units must set aside 4% as affordable (2% very-low income, 2% low-income). For-sale projects face 7–10% affordable requirements depending on size. City Council must still approve before the ordinance takes effect.
Vallejo Sun — September 11, 2026

Policy Watch

Bills that move prices
Policy Watch
InvestorsHomeowners
ADU backyard home
California banned owner-occupancy requirements for ADUs with AB 976, effective January 1, 2024 (now Gov. Code §66315). It's not pending — it's two-year-old law, and local ordinances that still impose it are unenforceable.
SB 679 on leginfo
Policy Watch
InvestorsBuyers
City hall building
The "30 days and it's auto-approved" shorthand mixes up two laws. AB 2234's missed deadlines trigger Housing Accountability Act liability, not approval. The real "deemed approved" lever is AB 253, effective October 2025 — which lets you bring in a private plan checker.
AB 2234 on leginfo
Policy Watch
BuyersInvestorsHomeowners
California housing development
AB 179, signed July 13, 2026, limits what cities and counties can charge in development impact fees on new residential projects, including affordable housing. Cities must now justify any fees they impose. The estimated savings per bill backers: $60,000 to $70,000 per unit in development cost. For Solano County cities trying to attract new housing supply after losing major industrial employers, this is a direct change in the math.
AB 179 — Gov.ca.gov July 13, 2026

ADU Policy: Now Law

Newsom signed both bills on September 29, 2026 — effective January 1, 2027
Small house exterior representing an accessory dwelling unit
ADU Watch
HomeownersInvestors
AB 956 allows two detached ADUs on a single-family lot, up from one, and voids HOA restrictions on state-compliant ADUs. SB 1117 eliminates impact fees on ADUs under 750 sq ft and charges proportionally above that. Both signed September 29, 2026 — effective January 1, 2027.
CalYIMBY — California Legislature Votes to Allow Homeowners to Build Two ADUs

What Passed Last Tuesday

Local votes you probably missed
What Passed
BuyersInvestorsRenters
California neighborhood aerial
AB 1893 (effective Jan 1, 2025) lets developers bypass local zoning in cities without a state-compliant housing element, in exchange for modest affordability. With 15 cities just put on notice and the first court test already lost by a city, resistance is getting expensive.
CalMatters Housing Coverage
What Passed
BuyersInvestors
Newport Beach coastline
On November 3, residents vote on Measure H — the “Responsible Housing Initiative” — slashing the city’s capacity from ~8,200 homes to ~2,900, and routing future decisions back to the ballot. A judge upheld the current plan in June 2025. If the measure passes, the city could lose state certification and face the builder’s remedy citywide.
Voice of OC
What Passed
BuyersInvestorsHomeowners
California housing development near transit
SB 79 (Wiener) took effect July 1, 2026, making qualifying high-density housing a by-right use near rail and Bus Rapid Transit stops in eight California counties. Bay Area BART stations in Fremont, Hayward, and Richmond already have active developer RFPs. Los Angeles passed ordinances to delay the law to ~2030; San Francisco exempted ~19,850 low-income-designated parcels until 2032. Cities can redirect density through alternative plans — but cannot lower the total housing ceiling. Update July 16: Governor Newsom signed SB 722 (Wahab), which excludes existing mobile home parks and RV parks from SB 79's by-right TOD development rules — protecting those residents from displacement.
SB 79 on leginfo
What Passed
BuyersHomeownersInvestors
California state housing construction
The Legislature voted June 25, 2026 to place SB 417 — the Veterans and Affordable Housing Bond Act of 2026 — on the November ballot as Proposition 1. $10 billion in general obligation bonds for affordable housing construction and preservation. $1.25 billion in revenue bonds for CalVet's below-market home-loan program for veterans. A yes vote authorizes the borrowing; it's not an immediate check, but it refills programs that fund projects across Solano County and the Bay Area.
SB 417 on leginfo
What Passed
BuyersHomeownersInvestorsRenters
Federal housing legislation documents
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) cleared the Senate 85-5 and the House 358-32 in late June. Trump canceled his own signing ceremony, cited the SAVE Act as a condition, then declined to veto. It became law at 12:01 a.m. on July 11, 2026 — automatically, without his signature. Key provisions: institutional investors owning more than 350 single-family homes cannot buy more starting January 7, 2027 (exceptions for build-to-rent; no divestiture of existing portfolios required); states get federal model zoning frameworks for by-right duplexes and triplexes; 100,000 more public housing units unlocked through a RAD expansion. Garamendi's HOME Act is included.
H.R. 6644 on Congress.gov
What Passed
BuyersInvestorsHomeowners
California housing construction project
California YIMBY's entire 2026 legislative agenda is now signed law. Four of the six target the friction that routinely adds months to California housing projects: SB 1116 limits local design veto power over starter homes; SB 1014 stops cities from ambushing builders with new infrastructure fees after a permit application is filed; SB 677 closes delay tactics cities use to stall approved projects; AB 2074 speeds high-rise housing near major transit hubs in the largest cities.
Davis Vanguard — Newsom signs 6 YIMBY bills

Influencer Correction

Someone on the internet was wrong
For sale sign in front of house
Correction
BuyersSellersInvestors
Case-Shiller’s national index rose just 0.7% year-over-year in March 2026 — cooling, not collapsing. California’s September 2026 median came in at $899,720 (+1.7% YoY), the fifth consecutive month of annual gains — even as sales fell 6.5% year-over-year and rates climbed toward 7%. Foreclosures are normalizing off pandemic-suppressed lows but remain historically low. That’s not a crash setup. That’s an expensive, slow grind.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Moving boxes in front of house
Real Story
BuyersSellers
C.A.R. reported a new statewide record of $930,260 in May 2026; June 2026 moderated to $904,640 (+0.4% YoY) as the luxury-sale mix shifted. Also true: people are leaving California. But net outmigration is concentrated among lower-income residents — a net loss of ~532,000 lower-income adults over a decade versus ~165,000 higher-income. The people leaving were largely not in the buyer pool.
CAR April 2026 Data
California homes price comparison
Correction
BuyersInvestors
The “tiered pricing” charts aren’t new legislation — they’re descriptive analysis (the Case-Shiller method) that sorts homes into low/mid/high tiers because a single median lies to you. C.A.R.’s May 2026 data (released June 17) sets a new statewide record: $930,260 — and the county spread remains extreme, from sub-$300K to above $2M.
firsttuesday Journal
Apartment building
Correction
RentersBuyers
Bay Area scammers are running a two-pronged TikTok rental fraud: posting fake listings for occupied homes (San Leandro), and stealing real agents' listing videos to impersonate them and collect deposits (San Francisco). A KRON4 reporter lost approximately $2,000. San Leandro PD is investigating.
ABC7 San Francisco
Stock market chart on a screen
Correction
BuyersSellersInvestors
A Marin homeowner listed an $8M property for Anthropic stock on LinkedIn. A $2.995M SF Victorian followed. National coverage called it a "trend." What the headlines skipped: not one of these deals has closed. The legal mechanics are harder than the hook.
Yahoo Finance
Bright modern home interior
Correction
SellersBuyers
A post went viral claiming California's new 2026 law means agents get fined $250 per unlabeled virtually staged photo. It doesn't. AB 723 requires a disclosure label and the original unaltered image — willful violation is a misdemeanor. The $250 figure is a pre-existing MLS rule for improperly deleting listing photos. Two different rules. One very shareable mix-up.
Open Homes Photography — AB 723 guide
Suburban homes on a residential street
Correction
BuyersSellers
The “2026 is the new 2016” trend is everywhere — throwback posts, housing TikToks, viral nostalgia. In 2016, the NAR's national median existing-home price was $232,200 and Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed averaged 3.65%. In June 2026, NAR's median is $440,600 and Freddie Mac's rate is 6.69% (as of August 6, 2026). The difference is real. Wishing for it doesn't change your closing date.
EffectiveAgents — 2016 vs 2026
Two people reviewing a real estate contract
Correction
BuyersSellers
In May 2026, a record 46.2% of home sales nationally included a seller concession, per Redfin MLS data. That national average fuels a lot of influencer advice to always negotiate for credits. But in the San Francisco metro, only 14.9% of sales included concessions. In the San Jose metro: 5.9%. National averages describe someone else's market.
Redfin — Seller Concessions Report, June 22, 2026
Sources
California Legislative Information (leginfo)Civil Code §827; Gov. Code §66315; AB 976, AB 2234, SB 838 (Ch. 789), AB 1893
California Association of Realtors — May 2026 data (released June 17)$930,260 statewide record, +3.1% YoY; county & regional figures
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller (formerly CoreLogic)national home price index, March 2026
ATTOM Data SolutionsQ1 2026 foreclosure market report
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)California domestic migration by income
Terner Center, UC BerkeleyAB 1893 / builder's remedy
Office of the Governor & HCDhousing-law enforcement; Newport Beach amicus support
LAist & The Real DealLA County rent gouging; Newport Beach vote
firsttuesday JournalCalifornia tiered-pricing analysis
RedfinSan Francisco & San Joaquin market data
Solano County Assessor-Recorder — FY2025/26 Roll$77.96B roll; 700+ appeals; Prop 8 status
Solano County Assessment Appealsformal appeal process, fees, filing window
Defy Mortgage — Asset Depletion Requirements 2026formula, eligible assets, rate range
NAR — Existing-Home Sales, June 2026National median $440,600 June 2026 (+1.8% YoY); 2016 annual median $232,200
Freddie Mac PMMS — 30-year fixed rate2016 annual average 3.65%; August 6, 2026: 6.69% (up from 6.66% prior week)
Governor of California — bills signed July 16, 2026SB 722 (Wahab) signed; excludes mobile home parks and RV parks from SB 79 TOD by-right rules
The Real Deal — California Forever Shipyard Poised for Lawmaker Nod (August 24, 2026)Wilson and Cabaldon announce Solano Maritime and Manufacturing Act; 1,350-acre Collinsville site; shipyard-only legislation, not housing or Solano Foundry; no bill number assigned